Slow-moving Showers & Thunderstorms Dwindle Tonight...Turning Hot On Monday...
Good Sunday evening, everyone! While most of the day was dry along I-64...that changed in a BIG way around 4-5 PM today here in Charleston and surrounding locations. A very slow-moving line of scattered showers and thunder produced torrential rainfall generally from Charleston down towards Madison and Logan. In fact...this activity was so 'hit or miss' that blue skies could be seen adjacent to the heavy rainfall! It's those same blue skies and filtered sunshine, however, that has been driving these scattered showers and thunderstorms, so once the sun sets and the atmosphere cools off a bit...the intensity and the coverage of this activity will wane a bit. Tonight is looking muggy once the storms settle down later this evening; overnight low's will only fall into the low to mid 60s given the humid airmass in place...and areas of patchy dense fog look to occur, especially in areas that received earlier rainfall. A rogue shower or two may persist late given ALL of the moisture around...but most places will remain dry and fairly quiet.
After some patchy dense fog and a humid start to Monday...it will turn very warm to even hot by the afternoon. With temperatures reaching the upper 80s on a slight southwesterly flow, along with a humid feel to the air (dewpoints in the 60s)...the atmosphere will actually be pretty unstable later in the day. However, with the weak, upper-level disturbance sliding eastward...along with the deeper moisture, the prospects for widespread showers and thunderstorms will significantly lessen. That being said...one last weak wave of energy may kick off a few, spotty thundershowers in the late morning to early afternoon as it slides across the area; this especially looks true for areas east of I-77 towards the higher terrain. Most locations will remain hot and dry under partly sunny skies given warming temperatures in the heavens above (this is called a 'CAP'...which tends to prevent rising air motions). By Tuesday...the bulge in the jet-stream (upper-level ridge) will essentially move overhead. This means that temperatures will reach the 90F mark by the late afternoon...plus it will be humid, too. Although the atmosphere will be quite unstable again (air molecules near the earth's surface will be more then willing to rise on their own)...the lack of lifting mechanisms (fronts, disturbances, low-pressures, etc) and the warmer air aloft should keep most places dry again. However...given some sunshine under partly cloudy skies, a very spotty thundershower or two could pop across the north or in the mountains. The main story, though, will be the heat and humidity...a good day to try to find a pool opening early!
Wednesday will start dry and muggy, but by late in the day...widespread showers and thunderstorms may be knocking on the door from the west. With the upper-ridge sliding east...and a disturbance trying to move in from the west by evening, showers and thunderstorms look to move into southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky at least by days-end. Most of the day, though, will be hot and humid under partly sunny skies; high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to around 90F...so another summer-like day indeed. By Thursday...the pattern changer, a front and a dip in the jet-stream (trough), will near from the northwest. With a moist and unstable atmosphere out ahead of this feature...numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening. Even with mostly cloudy skies, though, temperatures will try to reach the 80F mark...but it will remain pretty humid. Given the increasing winds with height (wind-shear)...one or two of these storms may be on the stronger side, but a widespread severe issue is not anticipated given the weakening of the parent low-pressure system.
As we head towards Friday and Memorial Day weekend...the weather looks quiet, but cool. Outside of a few showers across the southeastern counties early on Friday...a northerly flow will transport a more stable and drier airmass in by the afternoon. In fact, high temperatures will only reach the comfortable 70F mark by the late afternoon...and skies will turn mostly sunny! With the high pressure nudging down from Wisconsin late in the day...it will turn downright chilly overnight Friday into Saturday morning! With clearing skies, a lessening wind and dewpoints only in the 30s, temperatures will plunge into the 40s to start Saturday...not exactly a warm feel to the unofficial start of summer. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if some mountain valleys flirted with frost by then, either! However, the weather will remain quiet and benign...so outside of the cool nights, not bad at all. Saturday will feature mostly sunny skies and dry conditions, too. Temperatures will reach the low 70s during the day and bottom out in the mid 40s at night...so you may need the hot-tub instead of the pool in the evenings! Eventually, though, this high pressure will migrate eastward...which will allow for a warm front to near from the west late on Sunday. Most of Sunday appears dry at this time, though, and warmer...even with increasing clouds. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s by the afternoon and the humidity will return by Memorial Day itself. Have a great evening...and take care, everyone!
Storm Team Meteorologist
Updated: May. 19, 2013 7:31 PM EDT
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