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All I'm Sayin'
September 24, 2012
Tis the (new) Season
...is I won't be quitting my job to become a professional prognosticator anytime soon. For those of you that missed out on my practice of futility, let me recap. Last year I predicted that, among the 7 dramas that ABC had slated to debut during the year, 3 of them would make it the end of season and 4 would not. I chose to skip the ABC sitcoms and everything on Fox or my record may have been even more humbling. Those shows that I forecasted to find success were Missing, The River, and GCB - I think may have even labeled a couple of them as "can't miss". The 3 dramas that I was less than enthusiastic about were Revenge, Once Upon A Time, Scandal, and Charlie's Angels. 3 of the latter 4 were renewed, with the Charlie's Angels re-boot not resonating with ANYONE and the former 3 were not. Hence my sad but true record. So what does someone in my position do? Get right back on that horse, of course. Once again I'll show you what predictions I made and give myself a grade as to how I'm doing since this season is, shockingly, 25% complete. And this season I took a stab at both of our networks since I had even more conviction in my choices...(I'm sure Las Vegas is aflutter with anticipation).
I'll list them in order of their debut -
ABC:
Last Resort - It may be in the most problematic time period on ABC's schedule in recent years - Thursday at 8:00. Given how long it's been since they've experienced any success there, I truly feel they needed something drastically different than they've ever had before and, this just very well may be that show. It's not only completely different than anything else on at that time, it doesn't look like anything else on television, AND it seems to appeal to an audience 180 degrees different for ABC - men. This is a brutally hard time slot for a new program and, whereas I love the attempt and will be watching, I'm less than 50% sure that it will find enough of an audience. Now that we're 5-6 episodes in and, whereas the men numbers ARE exceeding expectations, the overall numbers just aren't there. Unfortunately I had to lean to the "no renewal" side of the fence.
My prediction grade - B
666 Park Avenue - Due to its cushy time period, immediately following last season's darling and highly addictive Revenge, I predicted moderate to good ratings and a full season renewal. Plus its the perfect kind of drama that ABC covets to appeal to its core demo - women 25-54. Now that there is enough of a sample size to judge that prediction, once again I seem to be overlooking one thing - compelling stories. My wife is still watching but I gave up after the 2nd episode. AND the masses seemed to have followed me as the ratings aspire to be those of an even moderate level. It may not last through Christmas.
My prediction grade - C
Nashville - Let's see, on every critic's Top New Shows of the Season list, starring every critic's favorite Connie Britton, receiving rave reviews from both the television and country music industry, competing with the aging CSI and critically panned Chicago Fire, I'm all in with this one - hit of the year...is what I would've bet big money on coming into the season. However, it appears not every critical darling begets eyeballs as, for reasons inexplicable to me, this show just hasn't lived up to its lofty expectations...yet. It came out of the gate decently, debuting after one hour of Modern Family, but has waned almost every week since. It did stabilize somewhat and ABC did grant it a full season pickup, which is the most important aspect, but it certainly hasn't achieved the plateau that everyone thought. I"m enjoying it and it's s-l-o-w-l-y picking up a little steam so we'll keep a close eye out for the rest of the season.
My prediction grade - D
The Neighbors - Um...this one has nearly caused me to re-evaluate my career choice in the television industry. An exact 180 degree difference in both expectations AND critical acclaim as Nashville, this show also debuted on the coveted Wednesday night in the glow of Modern Family and The Middle - like Nashville - to some fairly impressive ratings. It hasn't maintained that level of audience but it also hasn't tanked to immediate cancellation status either. Plus, it was the first show for which ABC granted a full season pickup. I predicted this show would be gone by Halloween.
My prediction grade - D
Malibu Country - The premise of an aging country star moving to Southern California to get away from her cheating husband didn't exactly seem very sitcom-ish to me and, therefore, this was my nominee as the shortest run of all of ABC's shows, even more-so than The Neighbors. It debuted to the largest 18-49 audience for the network this season. Did I mention I need to discontinue my prognosticating practice? It has fallen back a bit but it has already received an order for more scripts than originally planned. I underestimated the power of Reba.
My prediction grade - D
There are several other shows on ABC's docket for the season that will debut after the first of the year. The one I most anticipate is a sitcom titled How To Live With Your Parents For The Rest Of Your Life starring Sarah Chalke as a single mom that has moved in with her very liberal parents played by Brad Garret and Elizabeth Perkins. The preview I saw is hysterical. My prediction for this show is renewal and nice ratings.
Fox:
The Mob Doctor - No show made me straddle the fence more than this one. The concept is intriguing. The lead actress was very good. But the preview was kind of blah. The more reviews I read, the more I remained straddled as they were equally positive and negative. I decided, since it was Fox whose leash is usually a bit longer than other nets and since this was the only drama debuting in the fall, that it would survive the season. A few episodes in and it seems I'm wrong again. It's garnering the poorest ratings of almost all other dramas and everything I'm reading claim that its days are numbered.
My prediction grade - D+
The Mindy Project - The facts...Tuesday night sitcom, following last year's critical darling New Girl, big time network support, starring a proven sitcom veteran - how could it possibly miss? Here's how, it's not funny. However, when I took an informal poll of my co-workers, I got an exact opposite reaction from the majority. I certainly didn't think it would face the axe anytime soon considering the facts listed above, but I wasn't convinced it would achieve the same success as New Girl either. It appears I'm closer to being right about this one than I am about most others (that's a win, right?). Its ratings aren't very good and are slipping every week. Part of the problem is the glut of sitcoms on Tuesday nights with both ABC and NBC vying for that same audience.
My prediction grade - B
Ben & Kate - No show, for which I saw a preview, impressed me more than this one. I laughed throughout the entire 23 minutes of content. I thought the leads were funny, very well cast, fresh, and had a nice chemistry. I gave it as high praise as I did for Nashville on ABC. My odds for renewal were also quite high. Are you familiar with the sound of a game show buzzer that goes off when a contestant gives an incorrect answer? That's the sound you should now be hearing. Ratings are falling each week and it may very well be the next show to receive its walking papers...which is a huge shame because I'm loving this sitcom.
My prediction grade - D
And that's it for Fox. I found it quite odd that they launched so few shows in the fall...however... they're holding back what I think may be THE best drama of the season (possibly a sure kiss of death) and that is The Following starring Kevin Bacon as an ex-FBI agent on the trail of a serial killer. Everything I'm seeing and hearing about this is good and I'm predicting a renewal and a long life for this show.
This is exciting news for fans of this guy, Jimmy Kimmel Live is moving up an hour beginning January. Yep, ABC has greenlighted the late night comedian's successful talk show to 11:30 to directly compete with the big boys, namely Leno and Letterman, the latter of which is an idol of Jimmy's. In fact, when Kimmel recently had a stretch of shows in Brooklyn he had Dave on as a guest and one woulda thunk that it was a Cardinal hosting the Pope. Dave, in his gracious best, wished Jimmy the best of luck. I'm a big fan of Jimmy and will definitely get to check him out moreso than before. However, regardless of the spin ABC is placing on it, it may mean the demise of the institution known as Nightline. They're moving it back to 12:30 when viewers are fewer and further between. Plus they're planning a series of primetime Nightline specials. I'm sorry for the franchise but, again, excited for what Kimmel can bring to that hour. I reached out to my friend Mark Berman, a national television critic and Editor in Chief for TV Media Insights, for this quote about the bold move ABC is making - "I think this is a very wise move. Kimmel will likely benefit from the higher HUT levels at 11:35 p.m., ratings are likely to increase, and the ad revenue will be positively impacted (particularly from the younger audience skew than Nightline). While The Tonight Show with Jay Leno on NBC and The Late Show With David Letterman on CBS are still the shows to beat, Kimmel could, and should, now have a greater impact on ABC." I couldn't agree more Mark.
Seth MacFarlane is hosting the Oscars!!! I'll touch on that a great deal more in the coming months but I just had to state it to ensure it wasn't the end of civilization as we know it.
Let me give a shout out to our Huntington and Tri-State area radio partners Hits 97.9 and 101.5 Big Buck Country where you can hear both hourly weather updates with the best meteorologists in the area, the Eyewitness News Storm Team, and morning news updates each weekdays with Dave Benton and Dan Matics.
Family Guy quote:
Peter Griffin - "Dear McGyver: Enclosed is a paper clip, a rubber band, and a drinking straw. Please save our dog."
Please join me for periodic updates on the television on twitter @PaulNeace
...is All I'm Sayin'
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