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All I'm Sayin'
November 2, 2011
America's Pasttime?
...is Fox is going to have to look long and hard at whether or not to renew their contract with Major League Baseball in the future. The first network program to receive a full season order this fall was the surprise sitcom New Girl. It was only a surprise to viewers, not to critics. I read many reviews that stated this was the sitcom to beat and that Fox had found a new hit before it ever aired an episode. I usually take reviews with a grain of salt but it appears the majority of these were quite accurate. New Girl opened with a 7.4 rating which is, in baseball vernacular, a home run. Then, in week 2 it scored a 6.3, which might equal a run scoring triple. In week 3 it slugged a double down the right field line with a 6.0 rating. Then came the real baseball talk with the World Series which pre-empted this playoff contending sitcom. There was talk, prior to game 1, that Fox would air an episode of New Girl in the midst of the World Series. The logic behind this reasoning was the past failure of Fox shows that took the several week/up to a month hiatus during the fall classic and then, when the Series was over, viewers wouldn't be able to find the show, or possibly forget about it or - as we are creatures of habit - fail to commit it to memory and lock it into our internal weekly schedule, or set the DVR, or whatever. But, given that New Girl had experienced more success than most other shows that suffered the World Series hangover effect, Fox took a chance that it had already garnered enough of a following to make it immune to the fate of those that had preceded it. Apparently 3 weeks does not a loyal fan base make because in its 4th outing, the first - post baseball, New Girl not only didn't slug an extra base hit, its 5.1 rating barely cleared the infield with a bloop single. In other words, 30% of the audience that tuned in to week 1 failed to show back up for week 4. The slight decrease in weeks 2 and 3 are expected - practically every show experiences that sort of attrition. But 30% after 3 weeks could be cause for concern. The saving grace is that Fox will surely let New Girl battle through this batting slump and trust that the audience that embraced it so heavily in weeks 1-3 will surely find it again. If not and since it has already be signed on for another season, it may find its way to the waiver wire or traded to another network (ok, that won't happen but it was a fitting metaphor to end this).
Having said all of that however, this World Series garnered some very impressive ratings...every network should wish for this kind of problem.
New season update:
*ABC*
Last Man Standing - full season order expected any day, strong #2 in its time slot.
Man Up - probably won't survive past November, not retaining LMS ratings.
Suburgatory - full season renewal, perfect companion piece out of The Middle.
Revenge - full season renewal, winning its time slot, and exceeding expectations.
Charlie's Angels - canceled.
Once Upon A Time - biggest drama debut of the year on any network. Will be receiving a full season pickup any day.
Pan Am - strong expectations never materialized and probably will be axed in the next couple of weeks.
*Fox*
Terra Nova - moderate success and will conclude its 13 episode run in December.
New Girl - first program on any network to receive full season order...see above.
The X Factor - didn't meet its unreachable expectations, but still received a full season and is the first program picked up for another season.
Allen Gregory - lost an uncomfortable amount of the Simpsons audience. We'll see what happens over the next couple of weeks.
There are several shows yet to debut and more will be said and written about those in the coming weeks and months.
New Girl quote: Schmidt, "Sum up the last two years? The country's broke. Betty White came back."
For more TV talk, follow me on Twitter @paulneace.
...is All I'm Sayin'.
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